Manage risk in your project scenario

There can be several reasons for risk to appear in your scenario. You will find below a list of different risk situations, with their respective cockpit look, the main cause and corresponding resolution options.

Where to start when solving the risk within a project scenario?

• Start with the stage which is the closest to the demand (e.g. DP before DS).

• Once you address the risk of one stage, move to the previous one.

• In order to make sure that you are only impacted by the current stage situation, you can go to Bill of materials and unclick Use for the bill of materials from previous stages. This will avoid you facing the Risk situation #5.

What are the different risk situations you could encounter?

Risk situation #1: the first demands are missed.

Cause: A demand appears before the first release.

 

 

Preliminary Verification

• Confirm that the demand generating a risk has a need for input products that must be covered with the current available stock. Demands already covered by stock not modeled in the prediction app can be marked as FED. Go to the missed lot either in Packaging Lots or Manufacturing Lots and set Fed to true.

• Has the input lot intended to cover this demand been properly modeled in the manufacturing lots?

• Confirm that the manufacturing start date of the output product is correct.

• Ensure the input lot is usable from the manufacturing/packaging start date of the output lot:

  • In case you don’t work at risk: the release date and the arrival date of the input lot needs to be before the manufacturing start date of the output lot.

  • In case you work at risk: the manufacturing end date and the arrival date of the input lot needs to be before the manufacturing start date of the output lot.

• In the cockpit, you can verify visually that the input lot (bottom graph) is before the demand to be covered (top graph).

Solutions on the supply:

• Is it possible to start the manufacturing/packaging of the demand before the end of the release of the input product? If yes, change the usage strategy in order to work at risk.
  Go to Manufacturing Lots (or in the Guidelines for all the future suggested batches) and set the Wait release field to “Never” for the input lot so that the next production never waits for the input lot to be released in order to use it.

• Can we move the production of the input lot forward or add one before to mitigate this risk?

Solutions on the demand:

• Is it possible to postpone the manufacturing/packaging of this output lot after the release date of the input lot?

Risk situation #2: part of the demand is missed due to an insufficient quantity.

Cause: The manufactured quantity is insufficient to cover all demands before the next frozen lot.

Preliminary Verification:

• Confirm that the demand generating a risk has a need for input products that must be covered with the current available stock. Demands already covered by stock not modeled in the prediction app can be marked as FED. Go to the missed lot either in Packaging Lots or Manufacturing Lots and set Fed to true.

• Confirm that the manufacturing start date of the demand is correct.

• Confirm that the manufactured/released/available size of the input lot is correct.

• Confirm that the release date/arrival date of the next input lot is correct.

Solutions on the supply:

• Insert an additional lot of the input product in between existing frozen lots.
  Go to Manufacturing Lots and Add a new lot for the right product with a release/arrival date in between the ones of the existing frozen lots.

Solutions on the demand:

• Postpone the output lot up to the availability of a new input product lot.
  Go to Manufacturing Lots and update the Manufacturing start date of the output lot.

• Split the output product lot so that the first part can be covered by existing input product, and the second part can be postponed up to the availability of a new input lot.
  Go to Manufacturing Lots and decrease the manufactured quantity of the output lot. Add a new output lot with the remaining quantity, and a manufacturing start date later in time.

Risk situation #3: 100% of one or several demands is missed.

Cause: The expiry of a lot is not long enough to answer the demands in between two frozen lots. 

Preliminary Verification:

• Confirm that the demand generating a risk has a need for input products that must be covered with the current available stock. Demands already covered by stock not modeled in the prediction app can be marked as FED. Go to the missed lot either in Packaging Lots or Manufacturing Lots and set Fed to true.

• Ensure the expiry of an input lot is long enough to cover the expiry required by the output lot.

Solutions on the supply:

• Is there a shelf-life extension to model? Add a new row in the shelf-life table with the new shelf-life and the date at which this extension becomes possible.

• Is it possible to plan a new input lot with a longer expiry.

Solutions on the demand:

• Reduce the expected expiry date from the study to be aligned with the expiry of the input lot.

  • Go to Packaging Lots and ensure the expiry of the missed lot is defined as Exp. min from usage, or reduce the Exp. min from input entered manually if this isn’t the case. We recommend to also update this data in the trial scenario before the next demand import.

  • For the packaging lots suggested by the Prediction App (not frozen), the Estimated Remaining Shelf-life (in a trial scenario - Products table) need to respect this equation: Estimated Remaining Shelf-life < DP Shelf-life - manufacturing lead time DP - release lead time DP

Risk situation #4: no future releases are planned.

Cause: The predictor can't forecast new releases because a parameter is not properly used.

• Cause 1: Ensure you have Guidelines defined for the all the products of the demands which are missed.

• Cause 2: Mix parameter is not properly set

  • Example: One manufacturing lot can be shared (mix = always) and not the others (other lots and guidelines -> mix = never). In this situation, the app cover a part of the demand and never find another lot to cover the lot fully.

Risk situation #5: 100% of one or several demands is missed.

Cause: the input lot can’t be produced in the previous stage.

• In case none of the above mentioned risks can explain the risk in the stage, ensure that there is no risk at the previous stage.

• Solve the previous stage risk based on the different risk situations previously explained.